What China’s Rise Means for Singapore and World

Minister Shanmugam’s Speech on the Belt and Road Initiative in (Mostly) Pictures

Geopolitical Trends

1. China will be a superpower.

• Largest world economy and largest trading nation

• Technologically, militarily – China will become a more significant player.
• Already leading in innovation and infrastructure.

2.Change of relative power between America and China

• US has a significant lead, but over time, will have less and less scope for unilateral action, especially in areas of the globe where China has strong interests.
• China will not be able to ignore US interests either, even as its power increases. They will have to find a new way of life.

3. These trends are irreversible. OBOR is both a result of these trends and will accelerate them.

History

4.Silk Route was key in world trade for most of history. With OBOR, China tries to recreate this.

• Ideas like Buddhism also spread along it. Asia was the centre of civilisation.

Current international situation will accelerate the geopolitical trends mentioned

5. China has been very strategic in investing in Asia, Africa and South America.

• Can take risks and make long-term commitments
• US or Europe can’t do the same. Their political and economic systems are different.

6. America First has been suggested.  If this continues or intensifies, countries will be more drawn to OBOR.

One Belt One Road Initiative

7. Arguably the most ambitious infrastructure project in history. Trillions of dollars in infrastructure spending expected, in over 60 countries.

8. Challenges

• Silk Route has historically been beset with conflict and violence. Chinese know this.
• Russia, India, Turkey, Japan etc. all have different interests.
• OBOR is not a substitute for the current international order built on free trade, and will be threatened if it changes

9. Impact

Potential to bring Eurasia, China and Southeast Asia even closer together. If it succeeds, future trade routes could look like this

• Anchor the world’s centre of economic gravity in Asia. And China will be the centre of that centre.
• More Chinese military bases, security arrangements, along the new Silk Routes.
• More multi-polar world.

What it means for Singapore

10. We were among the first few countries to support the AIIB (one of the banks financing OBOR). We are already involved in and benefitting from OBOR.

11. Will continue to support such initiatives and be friendly with all. Need to do this to remain relevant.